September 9, 2001: Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir and feared by the Taliban, is assassinated by two persons who came from Belgium to Panjshir via Pakistan. Today, his son Ahmad Massoud is somewhere in the mountains of Panjshir as the Pakistani Army in Taliban camouflage and helped by drones, hunt for him and his associate, Amrullah Saleh.September 11, 2001: 19 terrorists attack the US with cataclysmic results, bringing the world to a standstill.Today, the Taliban, which had sheltered al-Qaeda, are ruling in Kabul. Helping them 20 years ago were the Pakistani Army, who themselves had sheltered Osama bin Laden for years in Abbottabad, Pakistan, while they pretended to cooperate in the US-led ‘global war on terror’.September 11, 2021: The Taliban now control Kabul, and no western nation wants to name Pakistan as the sponsor of terrorism. On Thursday, September 9, on the 20th anniversary of Massoud’s death, the local Taliban reportedly vandalises his tomb in Bazarak, according to some sources, smashing the glass on the stone of the tomb that had Quranic verses written on them.So, what is the message here for anyone listening in? That terrorism pays, and there is considerable return on investment in sponsoring terrorism.It is necessary here to recapitulate a few facts about the players in this game.The Taliban are a jihadi force that believes in the practice, imposition and spread of extreme Sunni Islam through conquest and violence. Having won an iconic jihadi victory in Afghanistan last month, they have begun to rule strictly according to the Sharia, and will not dilute their creed. They attained victory in Kabul with Pakistani assistance in military and psy-war strategy, sanctuaries and military hardware. 14 members of the Taliban cabinet are on the UN Security Council terrorism blacklist. Their sponsor, Pakistan, is on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog.Second, the Pakistani establishment’s hatred for India is unchanging and vicious. It is also getting Islamised. The Pakistani State, precarious as it is, believes it will survive as long as it nurtures and spreads enmity with India. Both the Taliban and Pakistan now rejoice that it was their faith — both in the religious and secular sense of the word — that defeated two superpowers, and ‘the rest’ should now be easy.For Pakistan, control of Afghanistan was always about seeking security against India. The Taliban victory in Kabul will nourish the Pakistani dream of attaining equality with India, followed by its break-up. Ghazwa-e-Hind is their ultimate dream.Two Wrongs Make a TragedyThird, the US, a superpower, has left Afghanistan, defeated by a religious force. This is the essential truth, whatever spin might be put on this by the Americans and their allies. US reputation and western systems of democracy and liberalism are the biggest losers. Anybody who knows the region knew that the US’ ‘nation-building’ project was doomed to fail. America had chosen the wrong ally and fought in the wrong country. It was a matter of when, not if. Pressures from Pentagon had presumably forced a continuation of this war, even as Barack Obama had wanted to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan.The Taliban are a barbaric lot who want to push Afghans and everyone else into medieval obscurantism. The Americans, with their arrogance and narcissistic description of their national interests, just wanted to leave. Pakistan, the resident opportunist, who sees this as its last chance to grab Kashmir, got into a huddle seeking attainment of their separate goals. These three — Taliban, Pakistan, the US — may be centre stage today, but waiting to storm in are China and its two friends, Russia and Iran, all with different goals.Clearly, the present situation is largely the result of a three-way deal.The first part of the deal was between the Americans and the Taliban about the details and mechanics of allowing the Americans to leave. The Taliban played their cards smartly, and are holding several Americans hostage to be released possibly after the US grants the Taliban regime some legitimacy. Some leaders willing to leave for safer havens would be allowed to escape.The second deal would have been a US-Pakistan deal to encourage Pakistan to facilitate a US-Taliban agreement and reward Pakistan for its efforts. Almost certainly, this would allow Pakistan complete freedom to deal with Afghanistan, including making the Afghan National Army ineffective so as not to pose any threat to the Taliban, or later to the Pakistani Army.Both would have agreed that it would be good optics if it appeared that the US had been negotiating with a reformed Taliban — the fabled ‘Taliban 2.0’ — and that the present threat to Afghanistan is from other terrorist organisations like the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), and the Pakistani hand had to be shown to be clean.The third deal was between the Taliban and Pakistan for a post-victory arrangement in Kabul. A Pakistan-Taliban deal that would enable Pakistani overlordship over Afghanistan for an unspecified length of time, and a Pakistani veto on government formation and Afghan foreign policies, especially with neighbouring countries.The Taliban — or Afghanistan’s ‘country boys’, as they were ‘fondly’ referred to by Britain’s chief of staff Nick Carter last month — dot the countryside with remnants of al-Qaeda, the so-called IS-K, an ISI bogey, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, jihadis from Central Asia and China, and Pakistan’s India-specific jihadis. Afghanistan is a fast-evolving powder keg waiting to explode. The debris will fall on the neighbourhood.Today, 20 years after the death of Massoud, the attacks on the US and the military reprisal by the US against Afghanistan-based al-Qaeda, one hears that the US is now trying to create a narrative to support terror groups like al-Qaeda and the Taliban in a supposed fight against Islamist terror of the IS-K and its Arab affiliates.Bad Loser, Worse PlayerApparently, the US now wants to stay on in Afghanistan. This intended somersault to indulge the violent agendas of Islamists in the region means that the US can no longer guarantee global security. It is behaving more like a gambler who has lost, but insists on playing on. The world, however, is not Joe Biden’s casino where the house always wins.The Islamists may dislike people from other religions and hate Shias. But along with those from Nato — who, till the other day, occupied their lands — they will seek revenge, slowly and repeatedly. There will be no closure.
from Economic Times https://ift.tt/3yWVLcV
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